Planning Poker
Card-based estimation in agile teams.
PURPOSE
Estimates in software development are often dominated by individual experts or distorted by groupthink. Planning Poker enables independent, parallel estimates that are only compared after being revealed. This makes extreme deviations visible and leads to valuable discussions about complexity and risks.
HOW TO USE
Each team member receives a card set with Fibonacci-like numbers (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21). The Product Owner presents a user story, and after clarifying questions, everyone selects a card face down. All cards are revealed simultaneously, and when there are large deviations, the extreme values explain their reasoning before a re-estimation.
WHAT IT IS
Planning Poker is a gamified estimation method for agile teams invented by James Grenning and popularized by Mike Cohn. The card set typically uses a modified Fibonacci sequence with deliberately larger gaps at higher values, since uncertainty grows with complexity. It combines expert estimation, analogy, and Wideband Delphi technique.
EXAMPLE
Example: Your team is supposed to estimate the effort for 15 user stories in sprint planning, but so far the senior developer always announces his number and everyone nods. With Planning Poker, everyone reveals their cards simultaneously — and suddenly the junior shows a 13 while the senior shows a 3. The ensuing discussion reveals a technical risk that would have otherwise been overlooked.
PREREQUISITES
- Understood items
- A reference story as anchor
- Skill: Estimation facilitation
⚠️ WATCH OUT
- Anchoring when seniors speak first — hence reveal simultaneously
- Common mistake: Averaging deviations instead of discussing them
- Common mistake: Treating estimates as deadline promises
💡 SUCCESS FACTORS
- Have the extremes explained — that's where the missing knowledge sits