Hypothesis-Driven Problem Solving
McKinsey approach to structured problem solving.
PURPOSE
Complex strategic problems are often tackled unsystematically, leading to analysis paralysis or premature conclusions. Hypothesis-Driven Problem Solving offers a structured approach that puts hypotheses first and searches for evidence in a targeted manner. It significantly accelerates problem solving by focusing analytical effort on the relevant questions.
HOW TO USE
First, the problem is clearly defined and broken down into a tree structure of sub-questions. For each sub-question, a hypothesis is formulated and the analyses needed to confirm or refute it are determined. The hypotheses are systematically tested, and a recommendation is formulated based on the results.
WHAT IT IS
Hypothesis-Driven Problem Solving is McKinsey's consulting approach to structured problem solving. It is based on the principle of first assuming an answer and then testing it in a targeted way, rather than collecting all data first. The framework uses Issue Trees, hypothesis trees, and the Pyramid Principle for structuring analyses and recommendations.
EXAMPLE
Example: Your consulting team needs to find out why a mid-sized machinery manufacturer is losing market share despite having great products. Instead of collecting all data for months, you formulate an initial hypothesis — the market share loss is due to missing digital sales channels — and then specifically gather evidence for or against it.